I am looking at a Lib Dem leaflet and laughing.
I know their game plan, it's always the same. At this stage in the campaign they put out leaflets saying that "it is too close to call" and that every last vote is needed to keep out..... or to beat...... in your area. This is supported with a helpful graph based on whatever figures are most supportive to the message.
Don't think that these figures need to have any relevance to the election in hand, They are often based on national figures, old election results, numbers of councillors, days in the month, dice rolls etc.
What made me laugh today was that the local Lib Dems in Lewisham East, where the leaflet was delivered clearly don't have any figures which support their "too close to call" narrative. So they've clearly made them up.
The graph that they use, with Labour in the lead, Lib Dems a close second and the Conservatives a very distant third, was based on "Lib Dem poll results" 29.4.2010. They don't even pretend that these are legitimate figures, no sample size, no details of collection method, no details of weighting methodology etc.
This is from the party which demands more honesty in politics.
Just for the record the Lib Dems came third in Lewisham East at the last general election and a distant third (13% of the vote) in the 2008 Assembly elections. I conducted some of my own polling in Lewisham East (face to face questioning conducted on 2.5.2010 unweighted sample size of 2) which gave the Conservatives 100% of the popular vote.
Read into that what you will.
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There is a reason why Nick Clegg was in Lewisham East this morning and it was not to support a candidate coming third. Whether you like it or not the Lib Dems really do believe that they are making progress here.
However, it would be huge shock for Heidi Alexander (Labour) not to win this seat with a healthy majority. It will almost be interesting to see who comes second in this safe seat.
Perhaps this will be another Lib Dem 'slump' into the winning position, just like that awful result for the Lib Dems in Downham, when the Conservatives came in a whopping third place.
It would appear that any pretence of truthfulness was abandonded by the Conservative Party a long long time ago.
Wow Jimmy, you sound just like one of Clegg's deluded spin doctors. More fool you if you believe it.
Excalibur,
I didn't realise that Clegg's spin doctors were predicting a win for Labour in Lewisham East!
But the Conservative statement that a win for Lib Dems in Downham is an awful result for them, really shows who is spinning a load of deluded nonsense. Pity that you are incapable of seeing that.
All I see is an electoral system that means the Lib Dems and Tories are squabbling about who has the better chance to beat Labour, meaning that neither of the parties will beat Labour.
Don't bet on it, Jimmy. I have every confidence in the sense of the electorate. Brown never has been, and never will be, elected as Prime minister of this great nation.
I have more confidence in the electorate than the electoral system. I agree, Brown will not win a majority (he won't even have the largest party in terms of popular vote, although he might have most seats).
You mention betting, so I looked up the odds from Ladbrokes for Lewisham East. They have Labour at 1/4, Lib Dems 5/2, and Conservatives at 12/1. Says it all really. I certainly won't be betting on a Conservative win here, will you - you could make a bundle?
Seems like "Labour in the lead, Lib Dems a close second and the Conservatives a very distant third". Maybe there is something in those Lib Dem figures afterall.
Funny you should say that but.... Our local Lib-Dem for South Dorset shows poll: Con 41% Lib-Dem 37% and Labour 14%. The last election was Con 37% Lab 41% Lib-Dem 15%. Maybe she has confused Labour with the Lib-Dems (an easy mistake)
It is either (at best) wishful thinking and at worst an open deceit. The sitting MP is Jim Knight (Labour). d'you know, I feel a post of my own coming on.
Lewisham East:
Labour 17,966 43.1% -4.6%
Lib Dem 11,750 28.2% +8.3%
Con 9,850 23.6% -0.7%
Not exactly "too close to call" in the end, but big gains for the Lib Dems push Conservatives in 3rd place. James Cleverly did much better than this in 2005.
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